CassandraBio
Pipeline dossier

NIH & clinical-trial pipeline signals for ELI LILLY & Co (LLY)

Leading indicators across the NIH grant → clinical trial → SEC filing chain for LLY, mapped to public ticker LLY (CIK 0000059478). Sourced live from public data.

⚠ Research/informational signals from public data (NIH · ClinicalTrials.gov · SEC EDGAR). Not investment advice. Full scope →
Trial → FilingLLY55% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE1 primary completion in ~41 days

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE1) — A Study of LY4086940 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Overweight or Obesity, With or Without Type 2 Diabetes
↓ Phase-transition base rate 52% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 2 readout / advance (12-24 mo, base rate 52%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE3 protocol updated 3 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE3) — A Study of Orforglipron (LY3502970) in Adolescent Participants With Obesity, or Overweight With Related Comorbidities
↓ Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission) (12-24 mo, base rate 57%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE3 protocol updated 3 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE3) — A Study of Tirzepatide in Adolescents With Obesity and Weight-Related Comorbidities (SURMOUNT-ADOLESCENTS-2)
↓ Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission) (12-24 mo, base rate 57%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE3 protocol updated 3 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE3) — A Platform Trial for Pediatric Participants With Obesity or Overweight (LY900040)
↓ Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission) (12-24 mo, base rate 57%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE3 protocol updated 4 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE3) — The Effect of Retatrutide Once Weekly on Cardiovascular Outcomes and Kidney Outcomes in Adults Living With Obesity (TRIUMPH-Outcomes)
↓ Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission) (12-24 mo, base rate 57%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE3 protocol updated 3 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE3) — A Study of Different Donanemab (LY3002813) Dosing Regimens in Adults With Early Alzheimer's Disease (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 6)
↓ Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission) (12-24 mo, base rate 57%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE2 protocol updated 4 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE2) — A Study of Donanemab (LY3002813) in Participants With Early Cognitive Decline (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 7)
↓ Phase-transition base rate 28% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 3 initiation (18-36 mo, base rate 28%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE1 protocol updated 5 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE1) — A Study of LY3439539 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease
↓ Phase-transition base rate 52% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 2 readout / advance (12-24 mo, base rate 52%)
trial ↗filings ↗
Trial → FilingLLY35% conf

ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) — PHASE3 protocol updated 3 days ago

Upstream (observed)
Clinical trial status (PHASE3) — A Study of Dulaglutide (LY2189265) 3.0 mg and 4.5 mg in Pediatric Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (AWARD-PEDS PLUS)
↓ Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)
Predicted downstream
SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission) (12-24 mo, base rate 57%)
trial ↗filings ↗

Recent SEC 8-K filings

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