{
  "query": "NVS",
  "resolved": {
    "ticker": "NVS",
    "cik": "0001114448",
    "title": "NOVARTIS AG"
  },
  "signals": [
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE3 primary completion in ~160 days",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE3)",
        "detail": "Study of Alpelisib (BYL719) in Combination With Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab as Maintenance Therapy in Patients With HER2-positive Advanced Breast Cancer With a PIK3CA Mutation",
        "nctId": "NCT04208178",
        "date": "2027-02-26"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "primary completion in ~160 days",
        "nctId": "NCT04208178"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission)",
        "leadTime": "12-24 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.58,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04208178",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE1 primary completion 51 days ago (readout window)",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE1)",
        "detail": "Study of Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of NIO752 in Early Alzheimer's Disease Participants",
        "nctId": "NCT05469360",
        "date": "2026-07-30"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "primary completion 51 days ago (readout window)",
        "nctId": "NCT05469360"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 2 readout / advance",
        "leadTime": "12-24 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.52,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 52% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05469360",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE2 protocol updated 1 days ago",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE2)",
        "detail": "A Study of JSB462 (Luxdegalutamide) Plus Lutetium (177Lu) Vipivotide Tetraxetan in Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC)",
        "nctId": "NCT07047118",
        "date": "2027-07-16"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "protocol updated 1 days ago",
        "nctId": "NCT07047118"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 3 initiation",
        "leadTime": "18-36 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.29,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 28% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07047118",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE2 protocol updated 1 days ago",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE2)",
        "detail": "A Phase Ib/II Open-label Study of AMO959 With Lutetium (177Lu) Vipivotide Tetraxetan (AAA617) in Combination With ARPI in Adult Participants With PSMA-positive mCRPC",
        "nctId": "NCT07226986",
        "date": "2028-07-10"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "protocol updated 1 days ago",
        "nctId": "NCT07226986"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 3 initiation",
        "leadTime": "18-36 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.29,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 28% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07226986",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE2 protocol updated 1 days ago",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE2)",
        "detail": "An Open-label Study of JSB462 (Luxdegalutamide) in Combination With Abiraterone in Adult Male Patients With Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer (mHSPC)",
        "nctId": "NCT06991556",
        "date": "2032-02-13"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "protocol updated 1 days ago",
        "nctId": "NCT06991556"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 3 initiation",
        "leadTime": "18-36 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.29,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 28% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06991556",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE3 protocol updated 1 days ago",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE3)",
        "detail": "Phase IIIb Study of Ribociclib + ET in Early Breast Cancer",
        "nctId": "NCT05827081",
        "date": "2029-09-07"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "protocol updated 1 days ago",
        "nctId": "NCT05827081"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on NDA/BLA filing (FDA submission)",
        "leadTime": "12-24 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.58,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 57% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05827081",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE1 protocol updated 1 days ago",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE1)",
        "detail": "Pharmacokinetics and Safety Study of Pelabresib in Patients With Advanced Malignancies and Hepatic Impairment",
        "nctId": "NCT07422610",
        "date": "2028-06-28"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "protocol updated 1 days ago",
        "nctId": "NCT07422610"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 2 readout / advance",
        "leadTime": "12-24 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.52,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 52% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07422610",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    }
  ],
  "recentFilings": {
    "name": "NOVARTIS AG",
    "sicDescription": "Pharmaceutical Preparations",
    "filings": []
  },
  "disclaimer": "Research/informational. NOT investment advice.",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:01:05.471Z"
}