{
  "query": "NVS",
  "resolved": {
    "ticker": "NVS",
    "cik": "0001114448",
    "title": "NOVARTIS AG"
  },
  "signals": [
    {
      "type": "trial_to_filing",
      "headline": "NOVARTIS AG (NVS) — PHASE2 protocol updated 13 days ago",
      "entity": "Novartis Pharmaceuticals",
      "ticker": "NVS",
      "cik": "0001114448",
      "tickerConfidence": 0.95,
      "upstream": {
        "event": "Clinical trial status (PHASE2)",
        "detail": "A Clinical Trial to Learn About the Effects of VHB937 in People With Early Alzheimer's Disease",
        "nctId": "NCT07094516",
        "date": "2028-09-14"
      },
      "observed": {
        "event": "protocol updated 13 days ago",
        "nctId": "NCT07094516"
      },
      "predicted": {
        "event": "SEC 8-K / press release on Phase 3 initiation",
        "leadTime": "18-36 mo",
        "baseRate": 0.29,
        "note": "Reg FD requires prompt disclosure of material clinical results."
      },
      "leadTime": "Phase-transition base rate 28% (Wong/Siah/Lo 2019)",
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "links": {
        "trial": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07094516",
        "filings": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001114448&type=8-K"
      }
    }
  ],
  "recentFilings": {
    "name": "NOVARTIS AG",
    "sicDescription": "Pharmaceutical Preparations",
    "filings": []
  },
  "disclaimer": "Research/informational. NOT investment advice.",
  "generatedAt": "2026-11-03T09:00:20.748Z"
}